Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
