Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

A number of members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.