Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
