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This surely should not continue. The logic defies rational sense that it persists. And yet, it does.

A Record-Chasing Triumph Defying Expectations

The Claret and Blue army arrived at Saturday's Premier League clash at Chelsea looking to equal a club record of 11 consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in 1897 and 1914. For the opening hour, this feat seemed improbable, as the hosts dominated proceedings, took the lead, and could have added several more. But, Chelsea have shown frailty when ahead, especially at home, while Villa now possess a remarkable habit of snatching wins on the road after falling behind.

First, the striker equalised, the ball cannoning in off his shin and the post after his first effort was saved by the goalkeeper. Subsequently, he nodded in the decisive goal with a precise header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the campaign. The forward might feel some fortune was overdue, and it's undeniable the first goal involved a large slice of luck. Currently, though, Lady Luck seems to be smiling on Villa.

The Numbers Behind an Implausible Streak

Nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a solitary goal. They have kept a clean sheet in just one of those matches. Their underlying metrics have been better in only six of those encounters, and in a couple of those, the advantage was 0.2 or less. Their last five away Premier League victories have all come from behind. This pattern should not, but pundits have been saying that for some time, and Villa continue winning. The key question is whether their outcomes will eventually match their displays or if their level of play can rise to match the results.

This seems unsustainable be sustainable, but everybody's been saying that for a while and Villa continue winning.

A Defining Characteristic: Belief

Coming from behind is not just a trait of the current campaign. Over the past 3 seasons, no team has gained more points from losing positions than Villa's 54; 18 of those have been secured this term, 50% more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have contributed 9 goals. Two key observations can be made about Villa under Unai Emery.

• Firstly, they possess a deep-rooted confidence that means no game ever feels beyond them. This is, in part, a virtuous cycle: the more they come from behind, the more they are convinced they can do it once more.
• Second, Emery has proven exceptionally skilled at influencing games with his substitutions.

The Emery Effect

While Chelsea won the expected goals 2.1-1.4, Villa were the dominant force from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery made a triple substitution. Ollie Watkins replaced Donyell Malen, who had struggled with limited service. Suddenly, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's movement in behind caused problems. Amadou Onana and Jadon Sancho also came on, strengthening the center and providing the flank presence they had lacked earlier.

The Blues registered 10 shots to Villa's none before the substitutions; afterwards, Villa had 11 chances to Chelsea's four. By the end, Villa were in control and could have won by a greater margin. Once again, Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca struggled to react as the game slipped away; the sense remains that he is more proficient at devising a game plan with preparation time than adapting in the moment.

Individual Brilliance

Villa have cultivated a welcome habit of individuals producing pieces of match-winning quality to alter games. Rogers has scored crucial goals at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The sight of him shifting the ball onto his favored foot and whipping a finish home has become a recurring theme. It was Malen who changed the game after coming on at Leeds. The striker swung the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of players such as Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were key. At present, it's seldom the whole side playing brilliantly, but sufficient players within it delivering to earn the victories.

The Road Ahead

Will they be able to keep going? They now sit three points behind the league leaders, and as the season nears its midway point, they must be considered as in the championship conversation, certainly more so than club world champions Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. Tuesday's away game at Arsenal will be a major examination of that status. Villa beat Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only had better the xG but posted an xG 40% higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this season.

The Gunners have since put together their own run of narrow victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being entirely convincing. Tuesday will be a test for both teams – and if Villa win a twelfth game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to dismiss their championship pedigree.